Qué ha pasado en las bolsas de los PIGS en los últimos 12 años: Desplome primero entre 2000 y 2003 por la burbuja de las acciones tecnológicas y de Internet, remontada entre 2003 y 2008, nuevo desplome, recuperación y desplome…Se ha perdido mucho dinero. La situación de quiebra de los diferentes países se refleja a la perfección en sus mercados de valores. Grecia pasó de estar en los 400 puntos a estar hoy por debajo de los 100, ruina total:
IRLANDA: no levanta cabeza, con los bancos quebrados y el estado también no hay su tía…
PORTUGAL: algo mejor, pero ya veremos…
ESPAÑA: Tampoco levanta cabeza y mira que no somos Portugal. Mientras otros mercados se han orientado al alza, nosotros seguimos muy lejos de los altos de 2008. Y no tiene mucha pinta que con los titulares de la prensa esto vaya a mejorar. No cae, pero no sube tampoco. Resulta curioso que, con la que está cayendo de titulares negativos, estamos lejos de los mínimos de 2009, ¿tierra de nadie?...
Hoy va a haber sorpresitas de nuevo. La gran duda es de si el paro de la EPA (encuesta de población activa), es decir el dato de paro que es más real, no el de los que se apuntan al INEM que luego hay muchos que no se inscriben por estar hartos de ir a la cola para nada, la duda es de si llegamos a los 5 millones o no. ¿Qué más da? El otro día contaba uno que el que venga nuevo, que será presumiblemente Rajoy y al que deseo muchos aciertos, tendría un éxito redondo si en 4 años colocaba a un millón de desempleados. Pero, ¿qué les pasa a las otras pobres 4.000.000 de almas?
Este es nuestro fracaso colectivo, el tuyo y el mío también, que no hayamos podido crear entre todos una España que no dependa tanto de la construcción, que no dependa tanto del ciclo económico, que sea tan poco industrial, que no hayamos sido capaces de explotar más el turismo, que nos esté pasando algo que nos les ha pasado a los demás países europeos: que nos hemos llenado de parados. Los demás países no tanto. A ver quién es el guapo que ahora se le ocurre algo para salir de ésta. Si no, nos pasará lo de los otros PIGS y seremos mucho más pobres, si no al tanto. Uy cuantos “si-no”, van en tu honor Blanca, nunca acierto con los sinoes, que uno es de ciencias. Abrazos
PD1: Para que puedas comparar las bolsas de los PIGS con la de Alemania y EEUU:
ALEMANIA: Llegando a los máximos de 2008 y de 2000:
EEUU: Ídem de ídem. Es el SP500: Ojo, no te lleves a engaño, Alemania es el paradigma (costes controlados, sin inflación, con crecimiento…) y EEUU ha tenido una inmensa inyección y estimulo financiero (QE1 y QE2) en estos años, sino de qué tamaña subida…
PD3: ¿Por qué se beatifica a Juan Pablo II tan pronto?As church officials keep emphasizing, Pope John Paul II is being beatified not for his performance as pope, but for how he lived the Christian virtues of faith, hope and love. When the
What emerged was a spiritual portrait of Pope John Paul, one that reflected lifelong practices of prayer and devotion, a strong sense of his priestly vocation and a reliance on faith to guide his most important decisions. More than leadership or managerial skills, these spiritual qualities were the key to his accomplishments–both before and after his election as pope in 1978.
From an early age, Karol Wojtyla faced hardships that tested his trust in God. His mother died when he was 9, and three years later he lost his only brother to scarlet fever. His father died when he was 20, and friends said Wojtyla knelt for 12 hours in prayer and sorrow at his bedside.
His calling to the priesthood was not something that happened overnight. It took shape during the dramatic years of World War II, after a wide variety of other experiences: Among other things, he had acted with a theater group, split stone at a quarry, written poetry and supported a network that smuggled Jews to safety.
Wojtyla’s friends of that era always remembered his contemplative side and his habit of intense prayer. A daily Mass-goer, he cultivated a special devotion to Mary. In 1938, he began working toward a philosophy degree at the
During the German occupation, Wojtyla began attending weekly meetings called the “living rosary” led by Jan Tyranowski, a Catholic layman who soon became his spiritual mentor. Tyranowski introduced him to the 16th-century Spanish Carmelite mystic,
At a spiritual crossroads in 1942, Wojtyla entered
He was ordained four years later, as
Father Wojtyla earned a doctorate in moral theology and began teaching at
He was elected Pope in 1978, and it didn’t stop him deepening his spiritual life.
Pope John Paul’s private prayer life was intense, and visitors who attended his morning Mass described him as immersed in an almost mystical form of meditation. He prayed the liturgy of the hours, he withdrew for hours of silent contemplation and eucharistic adoration, and he said the rosary often — eventually adding five new luminous mysteries to this traditional form of prayer…
Pope John Paul canonized 482 people, more than all his predecessors combined. Although the
He was convinced that God sometimes speaks to the world through simple and uneducated people. St. Faustina was one, and he also canonized St. Padre Pio, the Italian mystic, and St. Juan Diego, the Mexican peasant who had visions of Our Lady of Guadalupe.
The world knows Pope John Paul largely because of his travels to 129 countries. For him, they were spiritual journeys. As he told his top advisers in 1980: “These are trips of faith and of prayer, and they always have at their heart the meditation and proclamation of the word of God, the celebration of the Eucharist and the invocation of Mary.”
Pope John Paul never forgot that he was, above all, a priest. In his later years, he said repeatedly that what kept him going was not the power of the papacy but the spiritual strength that flowed from his priestly vocation. He told some 300,000 young people in 1997: “With the passing of time, the most important and beautiful thing for me is that I have been a priest for more than 50 years, because every day I can celebrate Holy Mass!”
In his final years, the suffering brought on by Parkinson’s disease, arthritis and other afflictions became part of the pope’s spiritual pilgrimage, demonstrating in an unusually public way his willingness to embrace the cross. With his beatification, the church is proposing not a model pope but a model Christian, one who witnessed inner holiness in the real world, and who, through words and example, challenged people to believe, to hope and to love.
Por cierto, tengo un hijo que ha salido a Roma en furgoneta y que tardará 20 horas de carretera. Échale un rezo para que lleguen bien los que han podido ir, y que vuelvan más contentos que unas castañuelas.
PD4: Ayer se publicaron los resultados del Banco de Santander y del Deutsche Bank. Qué coincidencia, ambos idénticos en términos absolutos, con una ganancia de 2.100 millones de euros en el primer trimestre (si multiplicamos por 4 son 8.400 milloncitos del ala), pero mientras el Santander bajaba sus beneficios un 5% por culpa de la mora española (acumula ya un 18% de mora inmobiliaria), el Deutsche Bank los subía un 17%. En teoría el DB saldrá perjudicado en breves por las quitas griegas e irlandesas, mientras que el español se beneficia de sus inversiones emergentes en Brasil.
Pero sus cotizaciones van clavadas en los últimos años. El español debería recoger que en su cuenta de resultados casi todo proviene de fuera, pero no lo hace por temor a que lo de dentro este más perjudicado de lo que cuenta Botín y cía. Al final esto es lo que no debería ocurrir, que vayan al alimón cuando ni se parecen en su fuentes de beneficios, ni sus países madres son iguales (ya nos gustaría ser como los germanos, en términos de calidad presupuestaria y cifras grandes macro, no en el resto que me gusto más como soy).
El gráfico no recoge los años previos que estuvieron sus cotizaciones por arriba. Es falso que se haya ganado un 25% en estos años, siguen en pérdidas ya que faltan las caídas desde 2000 hasta 2003 que fueron de aupa. Y el DB, como la mayoría de los bancos alemanes y franceses, refleja un guarrazo de narices desde los altos de 2008. Ya sabemos lo mal que les sienta saber que van a palmar como locos, como los bancos franceses, por sus políticas de inversión equivocadas, por querer ganar unos eurillos de más en los bonos periféricos, españoles incluidos…
En España hay dos valores que no ganan nada a pesar de sus magníficos dividendos y de fardar de que sus beneficios provienen de fuera, fundamentalmente de Brasil. Estos son el Banco de Santander y Telefónica. Ésta última con un dividendo previsto de 1,75 euros. Pero no sube ni aunque lo intente. Y mientras tanto Brasil va a su bola y sigue hacia arriba. Mira el gráfico del Bovespa brasileño qué poco se parece al del Santander o Telefónica. Ya se sabe, si quieres invertir en emergentes, es mejor en directo, no indirectamente que no funciona bien:
TELEFONICA: aburriendo a propios y extraños.
PD5: China va como un tiro, a pesar de tener a la bolsa clavada.
World Bank raises forecasts for
GDP growth China
"Even though our baseline inflation projections are not particularly worrying, the risks, including from further global commodity price shocks, call for vigilance," the World Bank said in its quarterly update on the Chinese economy.
China has raised benchmark interest rates four times and banks' required level of reserves seven times since October last year to contain inflation pressures, but the latest data still show the country's consumer price index rising at the fastest pace in nearly three years in March.
The World Bank raised its forecasts for
's gross domestic product growth to 9.3% this year from 8.7% previously, and 8.7% next year from 8.4%. The upward revision is based on the country's stronger-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2011, it said. China
The international lender now forecasts that
's consumer price index will rise by 5.0% this year and 3.4% next year, up from its previous forecasts of a 3.3% rise in both years. China
Food price increases, which have been a main driver of inflation in
, will likely slow over the next 12 months, resulting in moderating overall inflation, the World Bank said. China
Still, upstream inflation pressures may continue to build due to higher prices of oil and industrial commodities, the bank said.
Higher global commodity prices have also increased the costs of
China's imports, reducing 's trade surplus. China
"The surge in raw commodity prices means we expect another decline in the current account surplus this year. However, whether the trend towards a lower external surplus and lower dependence on external trade will be sustained remains to be seen."
The bank now expects
's current account surplus--the broadest measure of its trade balance with the outside world--will fall to $264 billion this year from $305 billion last year. As a percentage of GDP, the current account surplus will likely fall to 3.6% this year from 5.1% last year, it said. China
The bank's previous forecast, in November last year, was for a current account surplus of $356 billion this year, amounting to 5.3% of GDP.
The yuan has appreciated by 4.6% against the U.S. dollar since June 2010, but in effective terms, meaning against a basket of global currencies, it has actually depreciated, the World Bank said.
PD6: A cuento de la boda real británica de hoy:
The impending Royal Wedding will happen almost 30 years after Charles and Diana tied the knot in July 1981. There is no doubt that life in
has changed substantially since then, both economically and socially. Below I have presented 30 statistics (one per year) that I have come across during my time researching at the CPS. They have been chosen to reflect key trends over the period: Britain
1) In 1981, GDP per capita in the
was £11,885 in 2005 prices. Today, it is £21,110. UK
2) Public spending in 1981 amounted to £335 billion in 2009/10 prices. This year the government will spend £676 billion.
was the world’s 11th largest economy in 1981. It is now the 2nd largest and is predicted by the IMF to become the largest economy by 2016. China
4) The average house price in 2009/10 prices was £74,666 in 1981. It is now £162,379 (and did peak at £203,704 before the recession).
5) The Bank of England interest rate was 12% in 1981; now it is just 0.5%.
6) In 1981, there were 4.27 million days lost to strike action. In 2009, there were just 0.45 million.
7) 25% of
gross value added was in Manufacturing in 1981. By 2009 this figure had fallen to 10%. UK
8) In the election of 1979, the Conservative and Labour parties shared 80.8% of the popular vote. But in the election of 2010, this had fallen to 65.1%.
9) In 1981 there were just 19 female MPs, comprising 3% of the total. After the 2010 general election, there were 141 (or 22% of the total).
10) The average proportion of income spent on food has fallen from 22% in 1981, to 17% in 2010.
11) The cost of a flight to
in 2009/10 prices in 1981 was around £415. Today, it is £54 with a low-cost airline. Paris
12) In 1981, the proportion of gross income received from benefits for the poorest 50% of the population was 36%. This has now risen to 40%.
13) A litre of petrol was £1.05 in 1981 (2010 prices). Today it is £1.36.
14) A pint of beer is £2.80 today, but it was only £1.49 in 1981 (2010 prices).
15) In 1981 there were 351,973 marriages in
England and . In 2009 there were just 231,490 (the lowest number since 1895). Wales
16) 49% of marriages in 1981 were civil ceremonies. In 2009, this figure was 67%.
17) The proportion of children born outside of marriage was 14.1% in 1981. This figure is now 45%.
18) In 1981, the
faced net emigration of UK 80,000. In 2009, net immigration was 196,000.
19) In 1981, 6% of those living in the
were born abroad. Now, the figure is 11%. UK
20) Public health spending as a proportion of GDP was 4.7% in 1981. It is now 7.95%.
21) In 1981, there were 1.16 million employed in the whole NHS for
. Now, there are 1.4 million NHS employees in Great Britain alone. England
22) The total
prison population was UK 42,000 in 1981 (or 0.07% of the population). It is now 95,000 (approx. 0.15% of the population).
23) In 1981 28% of 16-18 year olds were in full-time education. In 2009, it was 78.8%.
24) The number of individuals in higher education was
466,000 in 1980/81. In 2008/09 there were 2.4 million.
Media and broadcasting
25) The RPI index for telecoms has fallen by approximately 16% since 1981, reflecting the benefits of privatisation and competition in the industry.
26) In 1981, BBC One’s share of total viewing figures was 39%. It is now 21%.
27) In 1981, there were 3
television channels; now there are 980. UK
28) In 1981, there were 16 million newspapers circulated; now there are around 10 million.
29) The most watched television programme in 1981 was the film Jaws, with 23.3 million viewers. In 2010, it was the X-Factor final results with 16.6 million.
30) In 1981, Satellite TV began to be trialled for the first time. Today 7.4 million people have either digital or analogue satellite television.